The rules
| System | After a loss | After a win | Idea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | Double | Back to base | One win recovers everything |
| Reverse Martingale (Paroli) | Back to base | Double | Ride winning streaks |
| D’Alembert | +1 unit | −1 unit | Recover slowly |
| Fibonacci | One step along 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8… | Two steps back | Slower growth than doubling |
| Flat | Same | Same | Baseline |
Results on identical spins
Bankroll 100 units, 1-unit base bet, European wheel, 600 spins, repeated 5,000 times. In each repetition all five systems saw the same roulette results. Fibonacci is not in the app and was computed separately under the same conditions.
| System | Average balance after 600 spins | Went bust | Finished above start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat | about 84 | 0% | about 24% |
| Martingale | about 71 | about 79% | about 21% |
| Fibonacci | about 73 | about 63% | about 36% |
| D’Alembert | about 45 | about 86% | about 14% |
| Reverse Martingale (app version: keeps doubling until a loss) | 0 | 100% | 0% |
Simulation figures use the app’s rules (always bet red, double after a loss, reset after a win), run thousands of times. Re-running shifts them by a point or two.
Every system lost on average. They differ only in how the loss arrives: steadily (flat) or mostly small wins followed by one big hit (Martingale, Fibonacci, D’Alembert). The app’s reverse Martingale never banks a streak; it keeps doubling until a loss, so each cycle gives back the winnings plus the base bet and the bankroll drains one unit at a time. The common “reset after three wins” Paroli still has negative expected value.
Why they all lose
Each bet’s expected value is −2.7% of the stake. Whatever the system, total loss divided by total amount wagered clusters around 2.7%. Systems change how much you wager and how results are spread, never that ratio. The arithmetic is in the house edge guide.
Using the Compare tab
The app shows amounts in Korean won (₩) in every language. Treat them as abstract units; only the ratios matter.
Set conditions and run the comparison
On the Compare tab choose the bankroll, base bet, roulette type, table limit and number of spins (100, 300 or 600), then tap Run Comparison. Martingale, Anti-Martingale, D’Alembert and flat betting are drawn as four curves on one chart.
Repeat a few times
In a single run the Martingale may finish on top. Repeat it and no system stays ahead; a different curve crashes each time.
FAQ
Flat betting lost least. Is it a good strategy?
It is a way to lose more slowly, not a way to win. The loss keeps growing with the number of spins.
What about mixing systems?
Every bet still has negative expected value, so any mix adds up to a negative number.
Martingale Bust - Roulette Sure-Win Simulator
Every amount is virtual. No sign-up, works offline. A free Android app for learning probability, in English and Korean.